FRIC/Finance Seminar with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
FRIC Center for Financial Friction and the Department of Finance are proud to announce the upcoming seminar with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University.
Arvind Krishnamurthy will present:
Authors:
Zhiguo He, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business and NBER
Arvind Krishnamurthy, Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management and NBER
Abstract:
Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediationadversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation.We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to anequity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochasticsteady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond tosystemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from “normal” states to systemicrisk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent duringthe 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilitiesof arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model canbe used to conduct a macroeconomic “stress test” linking a stress scenario to the probability ofsystemic risk states.